The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has sharply revised its forecast for airlines’ carbon credit requirements under the current phase of CORSIA, the aviation sector’s global decarbonisation scheme. According to the updated outlook, demand could reach as much as 237 million CORSIA-eligible credits between 2024 and 2026—almost 50% higher than the association’s estimate issued last year.
Vast forested hills with an airplane flying overhead. AI generated picture.
The forecast underscores rising expectations for offset demand under the scheme, which is overseen by the UN’s International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). IATA attributed the higher figures partly to stronger-than-anticipated air traffic and to the scheduled expansion of CORSIA participation in 2026. By then, 130 countries are expected to be involved, up from 121 in 2024.
‘Offsetting requirements, in the entire first phase is expected to lie between 146 and 246 million tonnes of CO2—most of which is expected to be satisfied as CORSIA EEUs’, IATA noted in materials shared with member airlines.
The revised range places total demand at 146–237 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, compared with the 107–161 million tonnes forecast published in 2023. Under the scheme, airlines can cover excess emissions either through CORSIA-eligible emissions units (EEUs) or by using credits linked to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). EEUs, which currently trade at around $23, are far cheaper than SAF and are expected to make up the majority of compliance activity.
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Breakdowns in IATA’s projections suggest that, even at the lower end of estimates, demand would climb steadily from 40.4 million units in 2024 to 56.1 million in 2026. At the upper end, demand could approach 99 million units by 2026.
IATA’s forecasts differ from ICAO’s annual emissions data, which is published each October for the prior year. By leveraging real-time traffic data from member airlines, IATA says it can provide an earlier view of offsetting obligations, giving carriers more time to plan their compliance strategies.
Although airlines have until early 2028 to meet their obligations, IATA has warned that waiting could expose them to higher costs as demand for credits rises across both CORSIA and emerging markets under the Paris Agreement’s Article 6. At present, only about 15.8 million CORSIA credits are available, highlighting potential supply constraints as compliance deadlines draw closer.
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The steep rise in CORSIA demand forecasts is part of a wider shift: Industries everywhere are under pressure to secure credible offsets in a tightening market. With supply still limited and scrutiny on quality increasing, the role of trusted carbon projects has never been more critical. At DGB Group, we deliver large-scale restoration initiatives that generate verified carbon credits while enhancing biodiversity and supporting local communities. The momentum is clear—make sure your business is positioned to benefit from it with us and contribute to a greener Earth.
