The voluntary carbon market (VCM) enters 2026 on a more resilient footing, shaped by a year of political headwinds, regulatory breakthroughs, and a decisive shift toward integrity-led growth.
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In its latest market outlook, Abatable frames 2025 as a year of contrasts. While environmental policy faced setbacks in some jurisdictions, demand for high-quality credits strengthened, forward contracting accelerated, and compliance schemes began reshaping long-term market dynamics.
One of the clearest signals of future demand comes from aviation. The International Civil Aviation Organisation’s CORSIA scheme is moving from design to delivery, with 58 million tonnes required to cover 2024 emissions and a projected additional 78 million tonnes of demand in 2026. This structural shift is expected to bring compliance and voluntary markets closer together, particularly as eligible supply expands.
At the national level, Japan’s upcoming GX-ETS will allow companies to use credits for up to 10% of compliance obligations, potentially generating 50–60 million tonnes of annual demand. Meanwhile, Article 6 infrastructure continues to develop, laying the groundwork for scaled issuance and cross-border credit transfers.
Corporate demand is also evolving. The draft Corporate Net Zero Standard V2 from the Science Based Targets initiative signals formal recognition of carbon credits to address ongoing emissions. This shift, alongside growing uptake of nature-related disclosures under the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures, is reinforcing the role of high-integrity credits within broader sustainability strategies.
Read more: Nature loss identified as a systemic risk to economies and financial stability
Integrity is emerging as the primary differentiator. The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market has now approved 40 Core Carbon Principle (CCP) methodologies, and buyers increasingly prioritise CCP-aligned supply, co-benefits, and recent vintages. As one buyer notes: ‘Quality starts with proven impact—we’re looking for credits that deliver real, measurable climate benefits, and that also create value for communities, nature and ecosystems on the ground. Alignment with integrity standards like ICVCM is critical, but it’s a baseline rather than the finish line.’
On the supply side, issuances declined modestly in 2025, but investment into future capacity remains substantial. Forward contract values rose 58% year-on-year to $5.8 billion, signalling a strong appetite to secure future removals. Nature-based solutions attracted a record $9 billion in funding, supporting transitions to updated methodologies.
Pricing trends reflect these dynamics. Forward prices for nature-based removals and high-integrity avoidance credits are rising toward 2030, while engineered removals remain premium-priced but may moderate as technologies scale.
For investors, developers, and corporate buyers alike, 2026 appears less defined by volume growth alone and more by quality, compliance convergence, and long-term positioning in a tightening market.
Read more: The hidden strength of nature-based credits in corporate decarbonisation strategies
As carbon markets evolve, integrity, compliance alignment and long-term capital are becoming central to strategic decision-making. The focus is shifting from short-term credit purchases to durable, high-quality climate and nature solutions that stand up to regulatory and stakeholder scrutiny.
At Green Earth, we support this transition by developing high-integrity conservation and restoration projects built on robust science, transparent methodologies and measurable impact. Our approach strengthens ecosystems, enhances biodiversity and delivers verified carbon outcomes alongside tangible community benefits.
By allocating capital to credible, nature-based solutions, businesses can reduce exposure to regulatory, supply chain and reputational risk while positioning themselves within a growing nature-positive economy. Organisations ready to move beyond compliance and demonstrate environmental leadership are invited to explore how investing in science-aligned, high-integrity projects can strengthen long-term value creation and resilience.
