EU carbon prices could surge to as much as €130 per tonne by 2028, setting the stage for a significant expansion in carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS) across heavy industry, according to the latest Carbonomics report from Goldman Sachs. The bank expects this price level to provide the economic push needed for large-scale deployment of decarbonisation technologies, without adding pressure to European energy bills.
EU industrial facility with carbon capture, utilisation, and storage (CCUS) technology. AI generated picture.
Goldman Sachs’ outlook hinges on a major shift in global gas markets. The bank forecasts a 50% increase in global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply in the latter half of this decade, easing prices across Europe and improving cost conditions for industry. This, the report suggests, could create a window for more ambitious environmental policy.
‘We argue that the lower natural gas prices we expect in the second half of the decade provide an opportunity for EU policymakers to push the EU ETS to the price level required for the decarbonisation of heavy industry without energy cost inflation to industry and consumers’, Goldman Sachs said.
The bank identifies a carbon price range of €100–130/tCO2e as the level at which CCUS becomes viable at scale. EU Allowance (EUA) prices currently remain well below that threshold, but Goldman forecasts they will climb steadily as structural reforms reshape the Emissions Trading System (ETS).
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A key driver will be the phase-out of free carbon allowances under the EU’s Fit for 55 package, which targets a 55% emissions reduction by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. Additional support is expected from the Market Stability Reserve, which absorbs surplus allowances to maintain price stability and tighten the market.
Goldman Sachs notes that the road to higher prices may not be linear. Softer natural gas markets in 2026–2027 could temporarily weigh on EUA prices before policy reforms fully take hold. Yet the bank sees this period as strategically important.
‘But it also provides an opportunity for EU regulators to tighten the carbon market and achieve their 'Fit for 55' commitment, leveraging lower energy prices to accelerate the energy transition — preventing an excessive decline in power prices from potentially derailing the build-up of renewables’, the report added.
If realised, the projected price trajectory could mark a turning point for Europe’s industrial decarbonisation efforts, unlocking a new wave of CCUS investment and infrastructure build-out.
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As Europe prepares for a carbon market defined by higher EUA prices, tighter rules and a growing push for large-scale decarbonisation technologies, the focus is shifting toward solutions that can deliver verifiable, lasting impact. This evolving landscape reflects the same principles we advance at Green Earth, where high-quality carbon projects restore ecosystems, strengthen community resilience and contribute meaningfully to global net-zero pathways. As industries across the EU look to carbon removal and nature-based solutions to complement CCUS and meet rising compliance expectations, organisations have an unprecedented opportunity to support projects that couple environmental integrity with social value. With the market moving decisively toward credibility and transparency, now is the perfect moment to take the next step.
