Germany’s ability to meet its legally binding net-zero target by 2045 will depend heavily on how quickly and decisively it scales up carbon dioxide removal (CDR), according to a new analysis by Carbon Gap and engineering consultancy Sweco. Under high-ambition scenarios, the study finds that carbon removal could not only offset Germany’s remaining emissions by mid-century, but potentially enable net-negative emissions earlier than planned.
The assessment explores two high-ambition pathways for Germany’s transition. One prioritises deep energy efficiency improvements, while the other reduces reliance on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Despite their different starting points, both pathways rely on a broad portfolio of carbon removal approaches and demonstrate that residual emissions projected for 2045 could be fully counterbalanced if deployment accelerates rapidly.
A key conclusion is that Germany must plan beyond 2050, starting now. Scaling carbon removal early would allow the country to manage long-term residual emissions and begin addressing historical emissions, rather than treating CDR as a marginal or last-resort solution. By contrast, a low-ambition pathway outlined in the study delivers only around 47 million tonnes of CO₂ removals by 2045—far below both Germany’s potential needs and its estimated theoretical maximum of approximately 258 million tonnes per year.
The report cautions that underinvestment in carbon removal would significantly increase the risk of missing climate targets, particularly as land-based carbon sinks have shown increasing volatility in recent years. Conversely, well-designed policy frameworks and early investment could stimulate economic activity and position Germany as a leader in the emerging carbon removal sector.
Read more: Integrity focus shapes carbon credit market valuations in 2025
Sylvain Delerce, Chief Scientist at Carbon Gap, said: ‘Germany has a real opportunity to secure its net-zero target with carbon removal, but only if ambition remains high. Low-ambition pathways are not enough at a time when climate uncertainty is increasing.’
Across all scenarios, geological CO₂ storage emerges as a critical bottleneck. While Germany has substantial capture potential, the study finds that this cannot be realised without rapid development of transport and storage infrastructure, including pipelines, shipping routes and storage sites. Without coordinated industrial policy, there is a risk that capture technologies advance faster than the infrastructure required to deploy them at scale.
The analysis also finds that most major carbon removal methods—from afforestation and biochar to enhanced weathering, BECCS and direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS)—are technically feasible in Germany. A diversified approach would reduce reliance on any single method and improve resilience as markets and governance frameworks evolve.
Public engagement research included in the study indicates broad societal support for carbon removal, alongside concerns about sustainability and oversight. While nature-based approaches are currently better understood, informed discussion appears to increase acceptance of technological solutions. However, both experts and citizens highlight the absence of a functioning market for carbon removals and stress the need for robust regulation to ensure credibility and prevent greenwashing.
Read more: Emissions accounting without an ESG team: achieving the best of both worlds for SMEs
As Germany and other advanced economies confront the practical limits of meeting net-zero targets without large-scale carbon dioxide removal, the emphasis is shifting from theoretical potential to deployable, high-integrity solutions. In a market increasingly shaped by constrained supply, infrastructure bottlenecks and rising regulatory scrutiny, long-term value will be determined by transparency, scientific rigour and the ability to deliver measurable, durable removals. Green Earth’s portfolio has been developed with these realities in mind, combining robust project design with digital verification to support nature-based carbon removal, ecosystem restoration and community resilience at scale. With 2030 sustainability milestones rapidly approaching and organisations reassessing how they secure credible removal capacity, the transition from ambition to implementation is already underway. For sustainability leaders and investors alike, the next step is to move from insight to informed action.
