Project-based carbon credit trading was valued at between $800 million and $900 million in 2025, according to updated findings from an annual survey by Climate Focus, underscoring the continued recalibration of voluntary carbon markets amid pricing pressure and evolving quality expectations.
Forest scientists and workers monitoring a forest as part of a carbon credits project. AI generated picture.
The Netherlands-based consultancy found that weaker prices across several segments, combined with lower credit issuances compared with 2024, reduced the overall market value. However, rising compliance-driven demand provided some support, allowing certain parts of the market to expand traded volumes despite the broader slowdown. ‘2025 data point to supply pullback, while retirements hold firm’, Climate Focus noted in its report, adding that these trends are expected to persist into 2026.
Total credit issuances declined by 9% year-on-year to 263 million in 2025, reflecting constrained activity in sectors facing particularly challenging pricing conditions. At the same time, issuance increasingly shifted towards newer vintages, defined as credits issued within the past four years. Around 221 million credits, representing 83% of the total supply, aligned with stronger buyer preferences that prioritise integrity and quality.
The report highlighted the growing influence of quality frameworks, notably the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market’s approval of 36 methodologies under its Core Carbon Principles (CCPs). This has reinforced a structural move towards updated methodologies and newer vintages. Nonetheless, Climate Focus pointed to delays in obtaining CCP labels for projects using major protocols such as Verra’s VM0047 Afforestation, Reforestation and Revegetation and VM0048 Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation.
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‘The ability of the CCP-label to materially shift aggregate pricing dynamics will depend on the pace at which newer methodologies convert into scalable issuance, as well as on interaction with other value drivers, notably compliance eligibility’, the report said.
Issuance trends varied sharply by sector. Clean cookstove projects saw a 13% increase to 68 million credits, while waste-sector issuances rose 23% to 23 million. In contrast, nature-based projects fell 9% to 80 million credits, industrial process credits declined 19% to 34 million, and renewable energy dropped 18% to 62 million.
Credit retirements eased slightly to 173 million in 2025 from 176 million the previous year, with activity skewed marginally towards newer vintages. Meanwhile, the volume of non-retired credits continued to accumulate, reaching 1.077 billion by year-end, up from 987 million in 2024. Climate Focus noted that this stockpile, which has now exceeded one billion credits for the first time, is dominated by legacy supply likely to persist in future datasets.
The findings come alongside separate estimates from Sylvera and MSCI, which valued the carbon credit market in 2025 at approximately $1.04 billion and $1.4 billion, respectively, reflecting differing methodologies and an increasing divergence between higher- and lower-integrity credits.
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As voluntary carbon markets move into a phase defined by constrained supply, heightened scrutiny and a clear preference for high-integrity credits, long-term value is increasingly shaped by transparency, robust verification and measurable real-world outcomes. Green Earth’s portfolio has been developed specifically for this environment, combining scientifically grounded project design with efficient digital verification to support ecosystem restoration and community resilience rather than short-term offsetting. With 2030 environmental commitments drawing closer and thousands of organisations already repositioning towards credible, future-proof assets, the market is signalling a decisive shift from passive participation to strategic engagement. For sustainability leaders, the next step is from insight to action.
