As COP30 drew to a close, Amazon has reaffirmed its commitment to afforestation, reforestation and revegetation (ARR) as a core pillar of its carbon removals strategy, signalling continued confidence in nature-based solutions even as debates around permanence intensify.
Reforestation project in the Amazon rainforest. AI generated picture.
The company has been steadily expanding its engagement with ARR developers, joining a growing cohort of major tech firms securing long-term offtake agreements for future carbon credits. While Amazon has not publicly disclosed the specifics of its deals, the company has referenced an active ‘pipeline’ of agreements in Brazil and other key regions.
Yet the ARR segment faces scrutiny over the durability of stored carbon, particularly in the face of escalating wildfire risk. Speaking on a panel in Belém, Jamey Mulligan, Amazon’s head of carbon neutralisation, underscored both the economic rationale for ARR and the need for stronger market safeguards. ‘Even if [an ARR project] burns and you need to plant it all over again, it is still cheaper than direct air capture,’ Mulligan said. He added, ‘And it's not about being cheap, but it's about economics and rational allocation of resources… And it's rational and correct to invest in [ARR].’
Mulligan acknowledged, however, that the market must better protect investments against nature-related risks. He described a likely shift away from traditional buffer pool structures toward an insurance-style model aligned with credit accreditation periods. ‘I think that the nature-based segments of the carbon market will shift maybe very soon from this kind of buffer pool construct… into more of an insurance-based approach during the accrediting period’, he said. Such a system, he suggested, could be paired with ‘some kind of guarantee fund that likes of the World Bank would manage.’
Read more: Key takeaways from COP30: From resilience to carbon trading
Recent analysis from insurance provider Artio reinforces the urgency of this transition, arguing that forestry projects need long-term risk modelling to account for more extreme environmental conditions.
The policy landscape adds another layer of uncertainty. Discussions at COP30 showed no breakthrough on permanence rules for nature-based solutions under Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement. Mulligan warned that excluding ARR could narrow the global toolkit for achieving emissions reductions. “I hope [countries' negotiators] get it right… [Otherwise] we will be missing a part of the solution’, he said, while noting that Amazon will continue its current approach regardless of the outcome.
Earlier this year, Amazon launched a service enabling partner companies to access carbon credits—including ARR—through its sustainability platform, reinforcing its long-term bet on the voluntary market.
Read more: Beyond tonnes: How carbon credit co-benefits elevate value
COP30’s final debates underscore a critical message: confidence in nature-based removals will only grow stronger as the market adopts sturdier safeguards and higher standards of permanence. With leaders like Amazon pushing for insurance-backed mechanisms and clearer pathways for ARR, the bar for environmental integrity is rising fast—and businesses are expected to keep pace. At Green Earth, our nature-based projects already meet this new threshold, combining ecological restoration, community impact, and rigorously verified carbon credits built for long-term reliability. As global expectations evolve, now is the time to move from observation to action—discover how we can help you take the next decisive step.
